A Semi-Educated Euro 2008 Preview Part IV

After parts one , two and three, must come four. Here's where I get super-hypothetical and predict games that aren't even scheduled yet. That's right. Let's do this.

Quarter Finals

Winner A vs. Runner-Up B - Portugal vs. Croatia

This one could turn into something of a dog-fight. Both squads are young and hungry. And in the Austrian/Swiss summer heat that combo could turn into feistiness pretty quickly. With bodies and cards flying around, it may just come down to the best player on the field. And that will be Cristiano Ronaldo



Portgual advances.

Winner B vs. Runner-Up A - Germany vs. Turkey

Germany should roll through this match-up just like they rolled through the group stages. Their (relative) home-court advantage and their overall class and talent will just be too much for the Turks. This could be an easy one for the Germans.



Germany advances.

Winner C vs. Runner-Up D - Italy vs. Russia

As good as Italy is, this could be the year that their core finally gets a little too old. And Russia is just the squad to pick them off. The Italians, will, of course, be looking to play defensive but the Russians won't have it. With their pace and creativity, Russia will run Italia off the pitch. Book it.



Russia advances.

Winner D vs. Runner-up C - Spain vs. France

Full disclosure, I originally had France winning Group C, but these two match-ups work a lot better for the sake of continuity. I really think this could be France's year. And I can't have them going up against my darkhorse pick. OK? Anyway, a Spain-France match is always fun and this one could go down as one of the top games in the tournament. If it does go down. I see France outlasting the Spanish, of course.



France advances.

This leaves a final four of:

Portugal, Germany, Russia and France.

A Semi-Educated Euro 2008 Preview Part III

I hope you've enjoyed this one and this one. Let's finish off the groups.

Group D

Greece: As we all know, Greece pulled off the upset of the century with their Euro 2004 victory. Can they do it again? I don't think anyone that's not Greek is really tipping them to do big things this go-round. They are known to have a defensive style which bodes well for tournaments. And, like Turkey, they got a lot of ballers in the same few teams in the Greek League so, yeah, familiarity.

Spain: Arguably the most prolific and talented team in the tournament, but until they make it to the medal rounds of a big tournament, it's hard to pick them to really go far. Still, the likes of Cesc Fabregas, Fernando Torres, Sergio Ramos and Iker Cassilas can't be counted out. They're all young players, too, so they shouldn't even be concentrating on the bad memories that the country has stored away. They should be thinking about their own legacy. If this collection of ballers were wearing any shirt other than the Spanish one, I think they'd be the consensus choice for the champs.

Russia: True story: I watched a Euro 2008 qualifier between Russia and Macedonia. And the Russians are a speedy, talented, fun-ass team. They, famously, outlated the English to make it to the big dance and with Guus Hiddink they have a tactician that ranks up there with any manager in the tournament. A bunch of the team plays for Zenit St. Petersburg so maybe that club's UEFA Cup win will give them some momentum. Yep, I'm streching. This team is my darkhorse pick.

Sweden: The Swedes always show up for these big tourneys and they often do better than anyone expected. But, I don't think this is their year. Sure, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic, they got one of the top strikers on the continent, but the call-up of Heinrik Larsson just seems a little desperate. I love big homey, but he's 36 and he can't even tear it up in the Swedish League.

Prediction: Spain never seems to have trouble in the group stages, so they should be through. The second team out of this group could really go in all three directions. Greece is the defending champs, of course and Sweden probably has the most European experience. But Russia seems to be a squad that's peaking at the right time.




Spain and Russia advance.

A Semi-Educated Euro 2008 Preview Part II

That last one was a rousing success, no? Let's keep it going.
Group C

Before we get going, I just gotta say, this group is a doozy. My god.

Romania: This team's always got some good young attacking firecrackers. And with Adrian Mutu, they got a humungously talented sometimes coke-headed offensive lynchpin. So you can't count them out of any competition. Unless they're grouped with three absolute behemoths. Which they happen to be. Good luck, guys!

France: You might be tempted to write this team off as too old, with the likes of Henry, Viera, Mackele and Thuram still anchoring the squad. But, in fact, they might have the best mix of young and new talent at the tournament. Franck Ribery is so good that Zidane might not even be missed. Lassana Diarra might be the next great French holding midfielder and Karim Benzema might be the next great French offensive talent. This team can turn it on at any time and ride their momentum right into the final four.

Italy: Italy has not exactly brought out the young athletes for this tournament, but they have so many straight-up ballers, that they're a top pick anyway. Pirlo, Gattusso, Toni, Del Piero, we all know what they can bring on the international stage. And they have Superman Gianluigi Buffon manning the net. They might be the team that everyone is least looking forward to playing. For a 90 minute, grind-it-out, tournmanet game, it's hard to pick against them.

Netherlands: This team is the wild-card of the tourney. They have as much talent as anyone, but something's not quite right about them. Having two veteran leaders--Clarence Seedorf and Mark Van Bommel--just quit on the manager, Marco Van Basten is not a good sign. But with young guys like Sneijder, Van Persie and Robben and deadly veterans like Van Nistelrooy and the wily Edwin Van der Sar still around, this team could do some things. Or Van Basten could refuse to play Ruud against Italy after the two have an argument about who is better-looking and the whole damn thing falls apart.

My Prediction: I'm gonna go with my gut and say the whole damn thing falls apart and Netherlands loses once or twice. Romania, while an extreme longshot to finish in the top two, is perfectly capable of beating any of these teams. But I still see France and Italia sliding through. I'd like to go out on more of a limb, but those two teams, while they might ultimately be a little too old to take it all, are built for these tournaments.




France and Italy advance.

A Semi-Educated Euro 2008 Preview, Part I

I'm not Avram Grant or anything over here,



but I'd like to think I've picked up a thing or two about soccer in the past couple years. And, of course, I think we're all looking forward to the Euro 2008. So, here's a stab at a multi-part preview of next month's tournament.

Let's go in alphabetical order.


Group A

Czech Republic: This team is always ranked something ridiculous--right now they're 6--and, though, they haven't won big at the tournaments, they're always a threat to get to the Semi-Finals. This team strikes me as a little old, though. Jan Koller is probably a grandfather and Pavel Nedved doesn't even feel like making the trip. Tomas Rosicky is out, and he wears the number 10 jersey for them. Not a number you want missing. The Czechs are good enough to make things interesting, but they're not dynamic enough to really do anything serious this go-round.

Portugal: They were runners-up at the 2004 Euros, they finished fourth in the 2006 World Cup. This really could be their year. They have the best player in the world in C. Ronaldo, but they are also loaded at nearly every other position. Roberto Carvalho, Ricardo Quaresma, Jose Bosingwa, Deco, Nani; Portugal's got some straight-up ballers. Maniche, maybe their most consistent player in 2006, didn't even make the cut. Anything less than the title will be a disappiontment to this crew.

Switzerland: While not as pathetic as Austria, it's safe to say the Swiss might not have made the Finals if they weren't hosting it. They put together some nice defensive performances in '06, but since then, they haven't been up to much. I guess. I haven't really been checking the Switzerland box scores. Prove me wrong, boys!

Turkey: From what I've seen of the Turkish diaspora in the European leagues, they are some tricky dudes. And a dozen of them play for the same two club teams back in the homeland, so they got the whole familiarity thing going for them. They also came out of nowhere to grab 4th place at the 2002 World Cup. Good enough for me.

My Prediction: Portugal is just gonna slap everybody around. Everybody is gonna slap Switzlerand around. So it'll really come down to the Turkey-Czech match, by my calculations. Unfortunately for the old-ass Czechs, that's the last game of the round. So those speedy young Turks could prove too much in that fixture and sneak into thequarterfinals.



Portgual and Turkey advance.

Group B

Poland: This team lost 3-0 at home to the damn Americans. That's pretty much the absolute worst way for a team to prepare for the Euro Cup. Still, word on the street, is that the Poles can put some numbers on the board, when they're so inclined. But, seriously, the U.S. national team in Krakow.

Austria: Austria may be the worst team to ever qualify for the Euros. How bad are they? A proud Austrian dude I know advocated this idea: Forgo the traditional obligatory host entry and let another team have the spot. England, Serbia, Scotland, Iceland Faroe Islands; there's gotta be some other team that deserves to be in the tourney just a bit more.

Croatia: This squad is gonna be a popular darkhorse pick in this tournament. You gotta love how they just marched into Wembley and cold-bloodedly smashed England's dreams. The loss of Brazil-born Eduardo is sure to be a blow, but they got enough firepower to blast their way intot he next round.

Germany: If I were a betting man, my money might ultimately be on Deutchland. They got as much talent as anyone, they finished 3rd in 2006, their players seem to be just the right age, with Michael Ballack they got one of the premier leaders in world football and they're playing just around the corner in Austria and Switzerland. Once the hosts get eliminated, all the drunk, neutral, German-speaking fans will instinctively root for guys named Bastian Schweinsteiger and Torsten Frings. Add on four or five outright scoring machines and this team is as dangerous as it gets.

Prediction: I guess Poland could make it interesting, but, really Germany and Croatia should advance fairly easily. The real drama in this group will be guessing Austria's goal differential. I'm going with -10.



Germany and Croatia advance.

Peace, Suns!

I realize I'm late on this but I just felt I had to say "later" to the Phoenix Suns.

I don't want to bite an ESPN writer but I saw a headline when the Shaq trade went down that really is the best way to describe it. It might even have been the way I would describe it if I were a headline writer for the Worldwide Leader.

The Suns sold their soul for the chance of an NBA title.

I know I'm in the minority, but I believe Steve Kerr when he said that D'Antoni was a bigger proponent of the Shaq trade than he was. I can just see Mike D sitting there year after year losing out to Duncan and the more traditional halfcourt Spurs big man system and getting frustrated. Not giving a damn anymore about fun. He had that back in 2005 and 2006. He just needed to, finally, win the title before Nash gave out. And fun teams don't win the title these days. Since the Jordan era ended, the title has gone through only Duncan, Shaq and Larry Brown. (Prove me wrong, Kobe! Prove me wrong!)

So, D'Antoni finally succumbed to this and, along with Kerr, he gambled. And they lost. And now he has to leave. Kerr hasn't fired D'Antoni because he understands this. Both are former multiple-time champions in different settings, chasing the ring again. And its not a question, of can D'Antoni do do this job anymore. Of course he can. He's still a great coach. he just can't go back. What he used to have has burned down. He needs a find a new home.

Really, its all been downhill since the Spurs beat the Suns in 2005. Within months, Joe Johnson was gone and Amare Stoudemire was micro-fractured. Yes, Black Jesus has made a spectacular recovery, but do you remember what he did in the 2005 playoffs?

In a simpler time, in a distant land, I wrote this after the 2005 Western Conference Finals:

Amare Stoudemire rules the world. Check these stats for for the recently-concluded 5-game series against the Spurs:

37 ppg . . . 9.8 rpg . . . 1.6 bpg . . . 55% fg . . . 84% ft

And, of course, these numbers were compiled playing out-of-position and going up against Tim Duncan, one of the best defensive big men ever. And look at that free-throw shooting. This dude is ice-cold. It's obvious that he relishes pressure and big games. Even though the Suns lost and even if the Spurs win it all, I think we'll all remember this postseason as the time when we really learned that Amare will dominate the league for years and years and years. We already know how great Duncan is, but Amare showed the world that he has the potential to be even better and have a more iconic and electric career. Either way, I look forward to watching these two duke it out for the next 5-10 years.

Amare was vaulting up to a level we had never imagined. While he is still really really good, great, Hall of Fame-caliber, a monster, you wouldn't say he's the G.O.A.T. In June 2005, I was just about ready to.

Throw in more losses to the Spurs, injuries, more trades, Boris Diaw, etc., etc., and the Suns, as they ended this season, aren't in the same ballpark as the 2004-2005 Suns. They're not even playing the same sport.

D'Antoni fiddled around with the basic formula until it was broke. Grant Hill might've been the last straw, but trading The Matrix for Big Diesel just put a damn blowtorch to the smoked-out ruins, if you'll allow me to mix metaphors.

The Suns go into next year with as old and as slow a team as anyone in the league. Watching them play the Spurs, they seemed like just a normal, grind-it-out team. But the Spurs are the ultimate grind-it-out team. That was never going to work.

Nash, Shaq and Hill are seriously old. Tony Parker going up against Nash wasn't even a contest. I really wouldn't have done much worse checking Tony. The only way to mask that definiency is to run the other team to death. Something you just can't do with the Big Cactus taking up $20 million of your salary cap.

D'Antoni just can't face this anymore. I can't either.

Goodbye, Suns. Keep in touch.